Forecasting epidemics of infectious diseases is notoriously hard, but the potential value to society for cracking that scientific nut is tremendous. Now a new approach is on the scene. The traditional ...

This article resulted from our participation in the session on the “role of expert opinion and judgment in statistical inference” at the October 2017 ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference. We present ...

Expert elicitation and structured judgment methods provide a systematic framework for quantifying uncertainty in fields where empirical data are sparse or ambiguous. By rigorously collating, ...

Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment was a groundbreaking look at whether political experts really are expert, as judged by their success at making ...

With the election cycle in full swing, it's open season for journalists hell-bent on catching candidates out in lies and misrepresentations. In a world that has become relentlessly “truthy,” to borrow ...

For centuries, there have been discussions as to whether only experts can judge the quality of cultural output, or whether the taste of the public also has merit. This paper tries to answer that ...